YX 4461 · LGA → STL

departs 1:41 PM ET · arrives 3:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4461 · LGA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?