YX 4475 · LGA → STL

took off 6:50 AM ET · landed 8:03 AM CT (scheduled 6:36 AM ET → 8:22 AM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to STL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4475 · LGA → STL

Odds over time

How late did it get to STL?