YX 4599 · PHL → BOS

departs 2:06 PM ET · arrives 3:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4599 · PHL → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?