YX 4639 · BOS → JFK

departs 6:03 AM ET · arrives 7:22 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4639 · BOS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?