AA 2604 · AUS → ORD

departs 5:08 PM CT · arrives 8:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2604 · AUS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?