MQ 4131 · ORD → AVL

departs 8:03 AM CT · arrives 10:52 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ AVL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

AVL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4131 · ORD → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?