WN 3764 · SAT → BNA

departs 3:27 PM CT · arrives 5:47 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 2.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3764 · SAT → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?