YX 4515 · LGA → PIT

departs 2:33 PM ET · arrives 4:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into PIT at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,167 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4515 · LGA → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?