AA 1802 · ORD → SAN

took off 11:13 AM CT · landed 12:52 PM PT (scheduled 9:59 AM CT → 12:28 PM PT)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,775 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

SAN (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,519 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1802 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAN?