AA 2035 · MCO → ORD

departs 7:33 PM ET · arrives 9:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2035 · MCO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?