AA 2315 · PHX → JFK

departs 4:52 PM MT · arrives 11:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2315 · PHX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?