AA 411 · SAT → DFW

departs 9:23 AM CT · arrives 10:46 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 411 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?