AS 1832 · LAX → SFO

departs 1:16 PM PT · arrives 2:36 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling10,925 ft Visibility9.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1832 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?