AS 204 · SFO → LAX

departs 6:21 PM PT · arrives 7:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling9,273 ft Visibility9.36585 mi Precip0.01 in

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 204 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?