G4 722 · AZA → PIA

departs 3:03 PM MT · arrives 7:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at PIA that day

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ PIA usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AZA

Weather at each end

AZA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,351 ft Visibility6.17925 mi Precip2.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 722 · AZA → PIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIA?