MQ 4218 · PHX → SEA

took off 3:38 PM MT · expected to land 5:12 PM PT (scheduled 3:30 PM MT → 5:43 PM PT)

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4218 · PHX → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?