MQ 4283 · AVP → ORD

took off 6:55 PM ET · landed 7:39 PM CT (scheduled 6:38 PM ET → 7:54 PM CT)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ AVP usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

AVP (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceiling6,566 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,775 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4283 · AVP → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?