MQ 4298 · CMI → ORD

took off 7:14 PM CT · expected to land 7:50 PM CT (scheduled 6:50 PM CT → 7:58 PM CT)

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
38%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ CMI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CMI (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,082 ft Visibility7.06 mi Precip0.03 in

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,720 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4298 · CMI → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?