PT 6005 · ROA → PHL

departs 2:51 PM ET · arrives 4:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at PHL that day

↓ ROA is quiet at that time

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ROA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling667 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

PHL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 6005 · ROA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?