PT 6031 · ORF → PHL

departs 7:13 PM ET · arrives 8:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 6031 · ORF → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?