PT 6106 · ILM → PHL

departs 2:02 PM ET · arrives 3:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9.66667 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility6.33333 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 6106 · ILM → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?