QX 2259 · PHX → SAN

took off 5:57 PM MT · landed 5:47 PM PT (scheduled 4:48 PM MT → 5:14 PM PT)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,519 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2259 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAN?