QX 2345 · SEA → SBA

departs 3:09 PM PT · arrives 5:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling11,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2345 · SEA → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?