Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AVIANCA EL SALVADOR · FLIGHT TA 528 LANDED 9:08 PM PT, ~2 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Thursday, November 5 Yesterday

TA 528 · SAL → LAX

took off · landed 9:08 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAL (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

LAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TA 528 · SAL → LAX

Odds over time