WN 1048 · MDW → PHX

took off 3:56 PM CT · expected to land 6:01 PM MT (scheduled 3:49 PM CT → 6:43 PM MT)

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.06 in

PHX (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1048 · MDW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?