WN 1998 · HNL → ITO

departs 5:56 AM HT · arrives 7:07 AM HT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at ITO more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ITO?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at ITO that day

↑ ITO is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ITO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1998 · HNL → ITO

Odds over time

How late will it get to ITO?