WN 2029 · HNL → OGG

took off 6:01 AM HT · expected to land 6:23 AM HT (scheduled 5:46 AM HT → 6:42 AM HT)

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OGG?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling9,988 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

OGG (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2029 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?