WN 2853 · LGB → LAS

departs 3:51 PM PT · arrives 5:01 PM PT

Your aircraft is N8984L (B38M), coming in as WN 2852 from LAS: in the air, landing about 3:00 PM PT, 47 min before departure.

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB

Weather at each end

LGB (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2853 · LGB → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?