WN 3085 · BNA → TPA

departs 9:12 AM CT · arrives 12:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3085 · BNA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?