WN 3174 · MDW → OAK

departs 10:04 AM CT · arrives 12:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from MDW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

OAK (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3174 · MDW → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?