WN 4320 · SAN → SMF

took off 8:24 AM PT · expected to land 9:32 AM PT (scheduled 8:21 AM PT → 10:05 AM PT)

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,988 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,732 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4320 · SAN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?