WN 457 · MDW → DSM

departs 10:01 AM CT · arrives 11:20 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DSM that day

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into DSM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

DSM (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4.74286 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 457 · MDW → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?