WN 804 · SMF → ONT

departs 3:27 PM PT · arrives 5:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 3pm departures from SMF are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 804 · SMF → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?