YX 4704 · RDU → LGA

departs 7:52 PM ET · arrives 9:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,167 ft Visibility7.33333 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4704 · RDU → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?