9E 5051 · DTW → BUF

departs 2:01 PM ET · arrives 3:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at BUF that day

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

BUF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5051 · DTW → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?