AA 1580 · LGA → DFW

took off 6:09 AM ET · landed 8:42 AM CT (scheduled 6:10 AM ET → 9:03 AM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DFW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from LGA are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.08 in

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1580 · LGA → DFW

Odds over time

How late did it get to DFW?