AA 1634 · DFW → SAN

departs 7:19 PM CT · arrives 8:34 PM PT

Your aircraft is N164NN (A321), coming in as AA 3143 from SAN: landed 7:02 PM CT.

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

97% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SAN (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1634 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?