MQ 3365 · PHX → CRQ

took off 6:01 PM MT · expected to land 10:49 PM -03 (scheduled 5:53 PM MT → 11:12 PM -03)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CRQ more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CRQ?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ CRQ usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CRQ (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3365 · PHX → CRQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to CRQ?