MQ 3574 · ORD → SGF

took off 5:41 PM CT · expected to land 6:49 PM CT (scheduled 5:32 PM CT → 7:11 PM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SGF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SGF that day

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SGF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3574 · ORD → SGF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SGF?