MQ 4023 · ORD → RIC

departs 8:51 AM CT · arrives 11:56 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at RIC that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ RIC usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

RIC (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4023 · ORD → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?