MQ 4180 · HSV → DFW

took off 5:19 PM CT · expected to land 6:52 PM CT (scheduled 4:50 PM CT → 6:58 PM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ HSV is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HSV (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4180 · HSV → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?