NH 186 · HND → HNL

departs 9:57 PM JST · arrives 10:06 AM HT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HND

↓ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HND (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

NH 186 · HND → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?