OH 5019 · PHL → RDU

departs 8:53 AM ET · arrives 10:31 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at RDU that day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.49 in

RDU (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5019 · PHL → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?