PT 5928 · CAE → PHL

departs 6:33 PM ET · arrives 8:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ CAE usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CAE (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.29 in

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 5928 · CAE → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?