PT 5986 · PHL → MHT

departs 8:52 AM ET · arrives 10:19 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MHT?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.66667 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MHT that day

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ MHT usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into MHT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.28 in

MHT (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.66667 mi Precip0.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 5986 · PHL → MHT

Odds over time

How late will it get to MHT?