PT 6030 · PHL → ORF

departs 11:59 AM ET · arrives 1:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1.6 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at ORF that day

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ ORF usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.49 in

ORF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.6 mi Precip1.71 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 6030 · PHL → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?