QX 2138 · SAN → FAT

took off 2:23 PM PT · landed 3:15 PM PT (scheduled 1:19 PM PT → 2:44 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to FAT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2138 · SAN → FAT

Odds over time

How late did it get to FAT?