QX 2145 · SEA → ALW

took off 1:46 PM PT · expected to land 2:23 PM PT (scheduled 1:28 PM PT → 2:40 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ALW more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ALW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Arrivals into ALW at that hour are usually not late

↓ ALW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

ALW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling8,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2145 · SEA → ALW

Odds over time

How late will it get to ALW?