QX 2147 · SAN → SFO

took off 1:07 PM PT · expected to land 2:16 PM PT (scheduled 12:11 PM PT → 1:53 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

93% chance · ±0 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
7%
15–30 min late
43%
30 min–1 hour late
50%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2147 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?