QX 2253 · PDX → SBA

took off 6:12 PM PT · expected to land 7:57 PM PT (scheduled 5:32 PM PT → 7:48 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SBA?

LIVE

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
39%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PDX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 933 ft forecast at PDX that day

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SBA (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2253 · PDX → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?